Silver - wellcome to the 5th of april ;)

Well, now we all can see, that BEARing silver wasn't so silly!
On 4-th of april I recognized a few sings for covering long from 25-th of january.
And now I know - that was right!!!
Silver drops to april first days level in just 3 days!
All due to insider games of silver miners. Selling borrowed silver from lbma on spot market made silver growing till the last spot bidder. Actually, on May 2-nd the last bidder came )

Short summary for the 1st two weeks of April

First I must say, that generally my moderate strategy for silver, euro and s&p500 legitimated expectations.
Euro
http://citadella-no-1.blogspot.com/2011/04/some-changes-in-ecb-monetary-policy.html
A little bit of correction before ECB made decision to hike rate. All expected!
Here you are evolution of hiking rate expectations

From "long" to short maturity

s&p500
Well, here we can see clear prospect for current correction.
http://citadella-no-1.blogspot.com/2011/04/fed-funds-effective-rates-data-update.html

And finally

Silver & Gold
I'm actually not top-caller, I just know that precious metals market "a little bit insider". So that fact makes us always waiting for fraud :)
For example on January, 26th 2011 I was looking for going long side (sorry in russian)
http://drift-for-life.livejournal.com/52509.html
So on April, 4th I got argument to take care about my "precious longs". And now I see it wasn't so thoughtless as it seemed to be at first look.

Good news from russian trade system!

From April, 15th 2011 Russian NFEA starts Ruonia based OIS fixing.
(NFEA RUONIA OIS FIXING or ROISfix)
Information partner - Thomson Reuters.

Yield on bonds of the Swiss Confederation

Spot interest rate for 10-year maturities hit today 2% (2.03%).
Last time over 2% it was in a mid of April 2010 (exactly from 02.04.2010 to 15.04.2010).

Silver Forward mid rate

Well, actually, I hates historical analogies...
Is about stupid "anchor's effect". It's so incompetent in my opinion ;)
But today's fixing results in London shows us, that SIFO (silver forward mid rate) dropped to 0.37% (17,7% from Friday's level)
Look trough the silver's chart on dates: 10th January 2010, 4th August 2010, 15th October 2010 and 29th December 2010 here you are alike situation.

Hedge your longs...

1m Libor USD - 1m Sifo spread

Fed Funds effective rates data update

Yesterday's (31.03.2011) fed funds effective rate dropped by 23% to 0.1%.

NY Fed Funds Effective Rate 5-day av.

New target is 0.095% - very strong support level. This means that our market operations on long side should be more careful!
Total decline in the fed funds rate from august - september 2010  = near 50% (from 0.2%)

Some changes in ECB monetary policy data.

First, I'd like to remind that few days ago, exactly on march 28th, 3-month Eonia OIS swap reached 1,005 first time in last 3 years.

As it known, surplussing OIS swap rate over the key Central bank' interest rate means market participants are expecting key interest rate increasing on swap maturity.

Eonia OIS 3 month

ECB usually manages situation by providing 2 main monetary policy programs: MRO and LTRO (certainly, there are a lot of other monetary instruments, but about it plans to post later).
Hence, ECB started to expand MRO allotment.

Main Refinancing Operations by ECB

So, how can we use such information for market operations and dealing?
Pure simple! 

One one hand we'll calculate Euribor - OIS Eonia 6 month spread for measuring impact of MRO providing, and on second, we'll plot MRO allotment for results estimation of LTRO maturity. For example, yesterday LTRO maturity makes Euro spot exchange rate increasing on near 1 per cent, while MRO expanding the day before and Euribor-OIS Eonia spread winking us about potential drop.

Euribor - OIS Eonia 6 month spread

Moreover, plotting Euribor - OIS spread lets us to recognize very useful detail, such as moments, when "short" spread (1 - 3 week maturity) became negative. For example on 09.02.11, 26.01.11, 03.12.10, 04.11.10 and, actually, on 30.03.11.